India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --
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India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
India's mobile sector finds itself in period of major uncertainty as 2G re-auction approaches Whilst maintaining its ranking as one of the two largest telecom markets in the world -not surprisingly the other being China - India's massive mobile market entered a period of uncertainty in 2012. A number of factors have contributed to this uncertainty which in turn was set to see some changes in the marketplace.The Supreme Court decision in February 2012 that resulted in the large scale cancellation of operator licences and the subsequent responses of the regulators to the court orders saw an increasingly nervous market.Indeed, the unfolding impact of the 2G scandal was looking grim for the mobile industry, with some operators either exiting or considering exiting the market.After a number of delays, the all-important re-auctioning of the cancelled 2G mobile licences had been set for late in 2012.
By mid-2012, there had also been another form of 'shake out' in the mobile subscriber market as operators culled inactive prepaid subscribers from their customer bases; this process had caused a dislocation in the subscriber statistics and it was evident that the market would need time to settle. Despite the difficulties, overall growth in the national subscriber base was expected to continue at a still strong rate. The mobile sector had passed the 900 million subscriber mark by early 2012; the number was just 10 million subscribers in 2002!
While the mobile subscriber base witnessed growth of around 20% annually coming into 2012, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) had been steadily declining as competing operators offered cheaper tariffs; at the same time usage levels have remained reasonably high thus slowing the decline in revenues. There has been a major push in recent years to take mobile services into the poorer and rural areas of the country; this has also weighed heavily on ARPUs. But countering this trend, the long-awaited 3G licensing has seen networks across the country delivering mobile data services to customers. Although still struggling with coverage issues, 3G was finally starting to help operators boost revenue. In 2012 there were signs that the decline in ARPU was 'bottoming out' and some operators were reporting increased ARPUs.
In the meantime, the fixed-line market, which had grown strongly for a while, began experiencing zero and then negative growth. Fixed-line subscriber numbers stood at just over 30 million by early 2012. With less than 3% fixed-line penetration, India has nevertheless achieved a remarkable national coverage, with 98% of the population having some form of access to a telephone. It has been the heavy investment in telecoms infrastructure over the last decade,plus a number of key regulatory initiatives that have combined to see India's huge population delivered at least some level of telephone service.
In terms of online access, there has been a fresh effort by the government to promote broadband internet throughout the country; after a period in which broadband development languished, there was new hope for a serious expansion phase in this segment of the market. By mid-2012 there were around 14 million fixed broadband subscribers - a lowly penetration (by population) of slightly more than 1%. Meanwhile, the impact of mobile broadband was finally starting to filter through the market and in the medium term this was expected to lift broadband penetration significantly.
Although facing serious functional challenges, there is much that is positive to be found in India's telecom industry. Sweeping reforms introduced by successive governments over the last decade or so have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. A number of factors have been responsible for the amazing growth in India's telecom sector; apart from the obvious booming economy and the rapid expansion in the country's middle class, the growth drivers include low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator. The government continued to open the market up to more and more competition. The market in turn became home to a clutch of global operators working with local companies. The launch of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in 2011 added yet another dimension to the intensely competitive market. The government has been continuing to push to complete the restructuring of the telecommunications regulatory regime.
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) remains especially committed to further structural reforms. The adoption of Unified Licensing, a change in the Access Deficit Charge regime, and the encouragement of increased infrastructure sharing, especially towers for mobile networks, were all contributing to ongoing growth. Another important initiative has been the Indian government's revised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy which increased the foreign ownership cap from 49% to 74%. If anything it could be said that the regulation of the market has been overly enthusiastic; there being some signs that the market was starting to suffer from the complexity of the regulatory regime. In parallel with the regulatory change process, there has been a continuing evolution of the market through a series of mergers and takeovers among the mobile operators that has initially resulted in a welcome and productive consolidation. The opening up of the market to full scale competition has been both dramatic and effective; however, as already noted, major challenges remain.
In 2012, growth in India's mobile market was continuing, but more modestly than in previous years;
By June 2012 the country 934 million mobile subscribers, for a penetration of 77% (Note: a statistical adjustment to mobile subscribers figures was imminent);
The mobile market was likely to expand at an annual rate of between 10% and 15% over 2012/2013;
GSM was strengthening its position as the dominant mobile technology over CDMA with 85% of the mobile subscriber market in 2012;The number of fixed broadband internet subscribers was steadily increasing, reaching 14 million for a penetration of just over 1% by population by mid-2012;DSL, whilst holding the major portion of the local fixed broadband market, was steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms, especially to wireless broadband platforms;
The market had witnessed a large scale roll-out of 3G networks by operators across the country following the long-delayed licensing;However, 3G had not immediately delivered the expected boost to the market in terms of large scale adoption of mobile data services;Following the Supreme Court decision cancelling operator licences in February 2012, the re-auction of the relevant 2G licences was expected in late 2012;Batelco became the first foreign operator to exit the Indian market in the wake of the 2G scandal; a number of other operators are considering whether to rebid in the re-auction of 2G licences India: - Key telecom subscribers - 2011 - 2012
Category | 2011 | 2012 (e) | Fixed-line services: | | | Total No. of subscribers | 32.7 million | 31.0 million | Broadband (fixed): | | | Total No. of subscribers | 13.3 million | 15.0 million | Mobile services: | | | Total No. of subscribers | 894 million | 1,000 million | (Source: BuddeComm)
1. Key Statistics1.1 Country overview1.1.1 Background1.1.2 Economy1.1.3 Analysis: India in the aftermath of the global financial crisis2. Telecommunications Market2.1 Overview2.2 Competition2.3 2G scandal2.4 Value Added Services (VAS)2.5 Third Generation (3G) auction2.6 WiMAX/wireless broadband spectrum auction2.7 Foreign investment2.7.1 Import of Chinese telecom equipment2.8 Universal service2.9 Government revenue3. Regulatory Environment3.1 Telecommunications authorities3.1.1 Ministry for Communications (MoC)3.1.2 Department of Telecommunications (DoT)3.1.3 Telecom Commission3.1.4 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)3.1.5 Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)3.1.6 Telecom Sector Ombudsman (TSO)3.1.7 Communications Commission of India (CCI)3.2 Licensing circles3.3 Regulatory developments3.3.1 Overview3.3.2 'Local content' rules3.3.3 Supreme Court ruling on 'distribution of national assets'3.3.4 Censorship issues3.3.5 New spectrum policy3.3.6 Tariffs3.3.7 Penalties for delayed roll-out3.3.8 Spectrum 'vacation'3.3.9 Cancelled licences3.3.10 Access Deficit Charge (ADC)3.3.11 Excess bandwidth fees3.3.12 Unified Access Services Licence (UASL)3.3.13 Basic Telephone Service (BTS) licensing guidelines3.3.14 The 'fixed' mobile story3.3.15 Offshore investment3.3.16 The Blackberry privacy case3.3.17 Spectrum charges3.3.18 Spectrum in 20143.4 National Telecom Policies3.4.1 National Telecom Policies 1999 (NTP-99)3.4.2 Addendum to NTP-993.4.3 New National Telecom Policy 3.4.4 National Broadband Policy 20043.4.5 Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)3.5 National security4. Major Operators4.1 Market overview4.2 Unified Access Service Licences (UASL)4.3 Mergers and acquisitions4.4 BSNL/MTNL4.5 Operator and market statistics4.5.1 Mobile market4.5.2 Fixed-line market4.6 Aircel/Dishnet4.6.1 Overview4.7 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)4.7.1 Overview4.7.2 Mobile business4.7.3 Fixed-line business4.7.4 Broadband business4.8 Bharti Airtel4.8.1 Overview4.8.2 Corporate structure4.8.3 Mobile business4.8.4 Fixed-line and broadband businesses4.8.5 International business4.9 Data Access4.10 Etisalat DB Telecom (Swan Telecom)4.11 Hughes Telecom4.12 Idea/Spice4.12.1 Overview4.12.2 Background4.12.3 Corporate structure4.12.4 3G development4.13 Loop Mobile (formerly BPL Mobile)4.13.1 Overview4.13.2 Corporate structure and development4.14 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)4.14.1 Overview4.14.2 Corporate structure4.14.3 Mobile business4.14.4 Fixed-line and broadband business4.15 Reliance Communications4.15.1 Overview4.15.2 Mobile business4.15.3 Fixed-line business4.15.4 International business4.16 Sistema4.16.1 Overview4.16.2 Mobile business4.16.3 Fixed-line business4.17 Spice Telecom4.18 S Tel4.18.1 Overview4.18.2 3G plans4.19 Tata Teleservices4.19.1 Overview4.19.2 Corporate structure4.19.3 Mobile business4.19.4 Fixed-line business4.19.5 International business: Tata Communications4.20 Uninor4.20.1 Overview4.20.2 Problems following 2G license cancellation4.21 Videocon4.22 Vodafone Essar4.23 Other operators and service providers4.23.1 Mobile operators4.23.2 Fixed network operators4.23.3 Internet Service Providers (ISPs)5. Telecommunications Infrastructure5.1 National infrastructure5.1.1 Overview5.1.2 Statistics5.1.3 Background to network development5.1.4 Infrastructure sharing5.1.5 Rural and regional networks5.1.6 Fibre optic cable projects5.1.7 National optical fibre network5.1.8 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)5.2 Infrastructure developments5.2.1 IP networks5.2.2 Next Generation Networks (NGN)5.3 International infrastructure5.3.1 Background5.3.2 Interconnect agreements5.3.3 India-Pakistan5.3.4 International service disruption5.3.5 Submarine cable networks5.3.6 Satellite communications6. Internet Market6.1 Overview6.1.1 Internet statistics6.1.2 Threat of action against Twitter6.1.3 E-medicine6.1.4 IPv4/IPv66.1.5 Growth issues6.2 Regulatory issues6.2.1 Foreign Exchange transactions6.2.2 Censorship of social media sites6.2.3 Internet policy: background6.2.4 Internet policy: development6.2.5 National Internet Exchange of India (NIXI)6.2.6 Control of the internet in India6.2.7 International connectivity6.3 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)7. Broadband Market7.1 Overview7.1.1 Broadband statistics7.2 National Broadband Policy7.2.1 Implementation of National Broadband Policy7.3 National Broadband Plan7.4 Broadband technologies7.4.1 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)7.4.2 Cable modem7.4.3 Wireless broadband7.4.4 WiMAX7.4.5 WiMAX spectrum auctions7.4.6 LTE7.4.7 Mobile wireless7.5 Satellite8. Digital Media / Digital Economy8.1 Broadcasting Market8.1.1 Overview8.1.2 Digital media8.1.3 Market statistics8.1.4 Regulatory issues8.2 TV and the transition to digital8.2.1 Overview8.2.2 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)8.2.3 Pay TV8.2.4 Cable TV8.2.5 Satellite TV8.2.6 Major cable and pay TV operators8.2.7 Free-to-Air TV9. Mobile Communications9.1 Overview of India's mobile market9.2 Mobile statistics9.3 Mobile market segments9.4 Development issues9.4.1 Cancellation of inactive subscribers9.4.2 Tariffs for wireless broadband9.4.3 Reporting of revenue9.4.4 Revenue and ARPU9.4.5 Spectrum allocations and spectrum auctions9.4.6 Rural expansion9.4.7 M-banking9.4.8 Foreign investment9.4.9 Merger and Acquisition (M&A) rules9.5 Regulatory issues9.5.1 Background9.5.2 Developments in 20119.5.3 Developments in 20129.6 2G corruption scandal9.6.1 Allegations9.6.2 Charges9.6.3 Court decision, appeal and aftermath9.6.4 Re-auctioning of 2G spectrum9.7 Analysis: 2G scandal - 20119.8 Mobile technologies9.8.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India9.8.2 GSM9.8.3 CDMA9.8.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile9.8.5 Fourth Generation (4G) / Long Term Evolution (LTE)9.9 Mobile voice services9.9.1 Prepaid9.10 Mobile data services9.10.1 Market overview9.10.2 Short Message Service (SMS)9.10.3 i-mode9.10.4 BlackBerry9.10.5 Mobile TV9.10.6 Mobile content10. Forecasts10.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services - 2015; 202010.2 Forecasts- internet services - 2015; 202010.3 Forecasts - Mobile services - 2015; 202011. Glossary of AbbreviationsTable 1 - Country statistics India - 2012Table 2 - Telecom revenue and investment statistics - 2009Table 3 - Telephone network statistics - March 2012Table 4 - Internet user statistics - March 2012Table 5 - Broadband statistics - March 2012Table 6 - Mobile statistics - March 2012Table 7 - National telecommunications authoritiesTable 8 - India's GDP real growth rate - 2006 - 2013Table 9 - Fixed-line services versus mobile services and penetration - March 2012Table 10 - Foreign Direct Investment in telecom sector - 2004 - 2011Table 11 - Telephone services to villages - March 2012Table 12 - Number of telecom licences issued by category - 2007 - 2008Table 13 - Mobile operators and subscribers - March 2012Table 14 - Total mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) by operator and market share - March 2012Table 15 - GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Table 16 - CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Table 17 -Overall mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2012Table 18 - Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 19 - Mobile ARPU (blended) for selected operators - 2011Table 20 - Fixed-line basic services by operator - March 2012Table 21 - Fixed-line subscribers by operator - 2008 - 2012Table 22 - Aircel mobile subscribers - 2004 - 2012Table 23 - BSNL mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 24 - Bharti Airtel mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 25 - Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU - 2004 - 2005; 2007 - 2012Table 26 - Bharti fixed-line subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 27 - Etisalat mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2012Table 28 - Idea/Spice mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 29 - Idea/Spice mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2011Table 30 - Loop Mobile (BPL) mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 31 - MTNL mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 32 - MTNL fixed-line subscribers - 2004; 2007; 2010 - 2012Table 33 - Reliance mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 34 - Reliance mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2012Table 35 - Reliance fixed-line subscribers - 2005 - 2012Table 36 - Sistema mobile subscribers - 2008 - 2012Table 37 - Spice Telecom mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2008Table 38 - S Tel mobile subscribers - 2009 - 2012Table 39 - Tata Teleservices mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 40 - Uninor mobile subscribers - 2009 - 2012Table 41 - Videocon mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2012Table 42 - Vodafone Essar mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2012Table 43 - Vodafone Essar mobile ARPU - 2008 - 2011Table 44 - Number of licensed ISPs - 2002 - 2003; 2005; 2008 - 2012Table 45 - ISP market - leading operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Table 46 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2005 - 2012Table 47 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) - 1995 - 2005Table 48 - Growth of VPT scheme - 2001 - 2012Table 49 - PCOs in operation and market share by operator - March 2012Table 50 - PCOs in operation - 2003 - 2012Table 51 - Fixed WLL subscribers (historical) - 2004 - 2006Table 52 - Internet users - 1995 - 2012Table 53 - Internet subscribers - 1995 - 2012Table 54 - Dial-up internet subscribers - 2007 - 2012Table 55 - Internet (dial-up) ARPU - 2005; 2007 - 2009Table 56 - International internet bandwidth - 2000 - 2012Table 57 - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2001 - 2012Table 58 - Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type - March 2012Table 59 - Broadband subscribers and households - March 2012Table 60 - Internet subscribers by access type - March 2012Table 61 - India - Broadband and internet subscriber targets - 2005; 2007; 2010Table 62 - DSL subscribers - 2001 - 2012Table 63 - Cable modem subscribers - 2001 - 2012Table 64 - Wireless broadband subscribers - 2003; 2006 - 2012Table 65 - Broadcasting market overview - 2011Table 66 - Cable and TV households - 1995 - 2011Table 67 - Total TV industry revenue - 2000 - 2011Table 68 - Pay TV subscribers by technology - 2003- 2012Table 69 - Number of channels carried by cable operators - 2009 - 2011Table 70 - DTH subscribers - 2008 - 2012Table 71 - Overview of India's mobile market - 2010 - 2012Table 72 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 2006 - 2012Table 73 - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) - 2002 - 2012Table 74 - GSM mobile subscribers and annual change - 1997 - 2012Table 75 - Mobile penetration urban and rural - 2007; 2009 - 2012Table 76 - Mobile services revenue - 1996 - 2012Table 77 - Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 78 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) - 2005 - 2012Table 79 -GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle - 2009; 2010 - 2012Table 80 - GSM ARPU - 2003 - 2012Table 81 - GSM ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 82 - GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Table 83 - GSM ARPU by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 84 - CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Table 85 - CDMA ARPU - 2003 - 2012Table 86 - CDMA ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 87 - 3G auction (2010): Number of licences and total fees paid by operatorsTable 88 - Prepaid mobile subscribers: share of total market - 2003 - 2012Table 89 - Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended - March 2012Table 90 - SMS traffic by technology and subscriber - 2011 - 2012Table 91 - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020Table 92 - Forecast internet subscribers - 2015; 2020Table 93 - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020Chart 1 - Mobile operators and subscribers - March 2012Chart 2 - Mobile operators' market share by subscribers - March 2012Chart 3 - Market share of fixed-line basic services by operator - March 2012Chart 4 - ISP market - leading operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012Chart 5 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2005 - 2012Chart 6 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) - 1995 - 2005Chart 7 - PCOs in operation and market share by operator - March 2012Chart 8 - Internet subscribers and growth - 2001 - 2012Chart 9 - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2001-2012Chart 10 - Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type - March 2012Chart 11 - DSL subscribers - 2001-2012Chart 12 - Cable modem subscribers - 2001-2012Chart 13 - Cable and TV households and TV industry revenue: 2000 - 2011Chart 14 - Pay TV subscribers by technology 2003-2012Chart 15 - Mobile subscribers and penetration - 2006 - 2012Chart 16 - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) - 2002-2012Chart 17 - GSM mobile subscribers and annual change - 1997-2012Chart 18 - Mobile penetration urban and rural - 2007; 2009-2012Chart 19 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) - 2005-2012Chart 20 - GSM mobile operator market share - September 2012Chart 21 - CDMA mobile operator market share - March 2012Exhibit 1 - Overview of FDI policy for India's telecom sectorExhibit 2 - Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel - April 2012Exhibit 3 - Bharti Airtel - mobile operations - key statisticsExhibit 4 - Idea Cellular - mobile operations - key statisticsExhibit 5 - Reliance Communications - mobile operations - key statisticsExhibit 6 - Tata Teleservices - mobile operations - key statisticsExhibit 7 - Vodafone Essar - mobile operations - key statisticsExhibit 8 - International submarine cable systems with landing points in India - 2011Exhibit 9 - ISRO satellite network - September 2012Exhibit 10 - Broadcasting Standard and major broadcastersExhibit 11 - Information on FTA turned Pay and New Pay ChannelsExhibit 12 - Overview of major channels available to consumers in IndiaExhibit 13 - Operators issued DTH licences - March 2012Exhibit 14 - Operators and licences affected by 2G licensing process cancellation - February 2012Exhibit 15 - CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India
To order this report:Broadband Industry: India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
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